Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
