A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
